Restructuring of Sino-U.S Relationship…..An Indian Point of View

Restructuring of Sino-U.S Relationship…..
An Indian Point of View

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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President Obama was in China during Nov 15-18 as a part of his 9-days trip to Asia which is taking him to Japan, Singapore and South Korea as well. He already had his first halt at Tokyo as Japan being the staunchest U.S ally and still the economic power-house despite China’s rise in the region.

He attended the Asia-Pacific Economic summit at Singapore and undoubtedly the North Korea’s nuclear aspirations will be set to dominate talks at South Korea when he concludes his Asian trip.
Of course his agenda in China was planned to be on climate change, trade imbalances etc. as programmed earlier. It will certainly be beneficial to both countries while Obama visits Beijing and Shanghai for the first time, for revitalizing the three decades’ long Sino-U.S relationship.

In a recent interview Obama said “I see China as a vital Partner as well as a competitor……. together we are encouraging responsible behavior around the world”. He rightly stated that on all critical issues like Climate Change, Nuclear non-proliferation, economic recovery etc. it will be hard to see how both countries succeed without working together. Though issues like the undervaluation of Yuan currency and Beijing’s help on economic recovery are to be raised on China, the burning security issues such as the deflation of nuclear ambitions of North Korea, dealing with Iran etc will get prominence in the Sino- U.S. meetings.

Indeed Obama contributed for the inclusion of China into G 20 upon enhancing from G7 only with the support of Powerful Western countries. Fortunately India too became part of G20 now whereas it is considered to be the foremost forum to discuss global issues. Let the Chinese Investments be there in U.S Treasuries and sway the U.S economy to import more from China. What ever be the political divergence between the two, business between them have to be ‘mutually exclusive’ wherein China has to enduringly enjoy the status of MFN (Most Favored Nation) to sustain FX earnings from the World’s biggest consumer economy.

It is a fact that U.S.A depends on China’s enormous savings to finance its escalating budget deficits. China too correspondingly depends on the American export market to fuel the highflying and burgeoning industrial growth, even though U.S.A is very much under the grip of global recession. U.S.A will never have the apprehension that China will unload investments in U.S Treasuries. It is possible that many facilities for export oriented production projects in China that were technically and financially assisted by U.S.A with buy-back arrangements were entwined against Chinese investments!

China and U.S are progressively more inter-dependent and simultaneously imbalanced in a hazardous way too! The American economy is being kept afloat, in part due to China’s willingness to buy U.S securities, the current funding from Beijing more than USD 1 trillion of U.S debt, higher than any other ally. Correspondingly, China is heavily reliant on U.S consumption to keep the export-reliant economy going. Obama raised its huge trade balance with President Hu Jintao and the discussion focused into the China’s insistence of keeping its currency artificially low.

Unfortunately, at present, United States is adversely affected by the soaring budget deficit to an annual record of precisely around USD 1.42 trillion! China is of help to United States but is worried on the depreciation of Dollar threatening its value of holdings. At the same time the manufacturers in U.S blame China’s low currency value contributing loss of 5 million jobs during the past decade. Naturally the Trade gap of U.S is getting escalated.

The recent call for a super-sovereign currency by the Chinese Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan alarmed U.S.A as a “shot across the bow”. His comments to the international audience have irritated American analysts and they have given solemn signals to the President for streamlining the decades’ Sino-U.S bilateral relationship. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao openly expressed concern on the security of Investments in United States and this made shocking waves at Federal Reserve. The U.S economy must be adversely affected by recession and the financial meltdown is being felt leading to fiscal deficits. When the U.S dollar will never be deposed from its supremacy in foreign-trade transactions and currency reserves, the contemptuous Chinese comments as if the Dollar’s days as pre-eminent currency are numbered would have infuriated U.S analysts.

The U.S Secretary of States James Steinberg’s comment that China is expected to reassure the world while it’s growing role will not come at the expense of security and wellbeing of others, may be just to please, especially other Asian trade partners like India.

China occupied Tibet in early 1950 and Dalai Lama, the Spiritual leader fled to neighbouring India and lead the campaign for the freedom of the tiny Himalayan realm back to the ethnic Buddhist community. China kept on accusing Dalai Lama for leading the movement for splitting the Himalayan region from the rest of the world.” We did note that while we recognize that Tibet is part of People’s Republic of China, United States supports an early resumption of dialogue” between Dalai Lama’s representatives and China. Obama said after his meeting with Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao in Beijing. Obama’s comments on Tibet would have found place in his agenda as he has come to know on the sentences of the founder of a web site promoting the Tibetan language and a Tibetan blogger.

It is to be noted that the Hollywood Actor Richard Gere’s letter submitted on behalf of the Board of International Campaign For Tibet to President Obama highlighting that Tibetans are alarmed and disappointed when he did not meet Dalai Lama during the latter’s Washington visit in October,2009 captured headlines in U.S. Even after half a century after the occupation by China, the future of Tibet is unknown.

Obama visited China seeking participated support and help to resolve a host of international issues wherein both parties have to strike a balance between them as competitors as well as partners. Both countries have many interests which Obama explained in detail and said “I do not believe that one country’s success must come at the expense of another”

Dalai Lama, the Octogenarian leader amid a failed uprising in 1959 has denied all allegations of China against his freedom movement. There was no peace talk between both groups since 2002, and though it was resumed in July 2008, it landed in an impasse when China put forth a conditional demand that Dalai Lama will not position his mission for Tibetan independence. The former U.S Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton have urged China to recommence dialogue with Dalai Lama and wanted Tibet to be freed from oppression.

The situation went out of control at Lhasa, Tibet’s capital in early 2009 in which hundreds of shops were torched and many Chinese civilians who are migrated into the troubled area as new settlers were affected.

China has always tactically played a good game on the Tibet issue. Whenever a foreign leader high-light the issue in any meetings or whenever they call on Dalai Lama, China will just upgrade its position on such interactions to an attack on ‘China’s Core interests’! It is a fact, for a foreign leader, the meetings with Dalai Lama often becomes symbolic just to please their domestic vote bank. While on a China visit, in a bid to avoid confrontation with China, they are tend to make concessions scripted by Chinese regime. Finally they will accept the Chinese sovereignty over Tibet. This was happened to German Chancellor Merkel when he met Dalai Lama in 2007. France did it this spring after the token meeting of President Sarkozy and the Tibetan leader Dalai Lama. For the first time, British recognized China’s sovereignty on Tibet in 2008 even before having any meeting with Dalai Lama.

At this point in time I have to certainly mention on one thing. China had the privilege to enjoy concessions as prescribed by western leaders which may be substantive in Chinese terms. Amongst other things, the British concession has now lead India being isolated in its position on its boarder with China!

China would have settled its boarder disputes with Vietnam and Russia as commented by Chinese media itself. Quite strange, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Qin gang, after the return of U.S President back to U.S had stated that the so called dispute with India will be a ‘more pronounced’ one, though he is unaware of any incidence of similar boarder disputes china had with other neighbours.

Obama who is on a maiden visit to the communist nation, warned Iran and to face ‘consequences’ if failed to show greater transparency on its nuclear programmes.
U.S needs China’s influence to apply pressure on Iran to disband any of its nuclear weapon programme. China would like to ensure peace in the north-east Asia.

Obama reiterated that North Korea poised for nuclear weapons have to abide by the process of six party (5 +1) talks, to be restarted as early as possible. Hu Jintao supported Obama by stating that both nations are committed to dialogue and consultation in resolving the Korean peninsula nuclear issue, the remarked that” they will continue to have consultations on an equal footing to properly resolve economic and trade frictions.”

China is having remarkable economic ties with Iran and thus appearing less willing to endorse a tougher approach to Tehran’s uranium enrichment and the suspected pursuit of atom bombs.

The Taiwan issue is temporarily dormant for the time being due to the diplomatic tactics of the present government at Taipei. Any time Beijing will clamor for the unification of Taiwan with the main land China and trigger missiles positioned towards the island. It is ironical that Taiwan has geared up its defense with the arms supplied by U.S.A! There no much of discussion on the Taiwan issue during Obama’s deliberations at China.

Obama’s advocated for freedom in all respects while delivering a speech on a students’ forum. He indirectly hinted the Chinese authorities to relax the internet restrictions clamped on the people and the freedom of expression denied. Obama favoured for China’s active participation in the economic front at the international level being a towering economic power steering to leap forward and share the burden of leadership with other growing economies in the world.

Obama has raised its huge trade balance with President Hu Jintao and the discussion focused into the China’s insistence of keeping its currency artificially low. In the Joint Statement between U.S and China, there was no mention of any change in China’s currency policies, though U.S was pressing for the appreciation of yuan currency.

As stated earlier, the Chinese regime wanted U.S to respect for its ‘core interests’ – to stop supports to Taiwan and Dalai Lama’s exiled government.

Let U.S.A elevate China by taking more global issues to the centre of U.S-China relationship. It is high time that China understands issues like Climate Change and initiate action for more active participation in the global climate summit to be held in December, 2009 at Copenhagen. He said that both U.S and China want climate change deliberations to be held in Copenhagen in December, 2009 to result in a global deal that has ‘immediate operational effect’. China is the largest emitter of Carbon dioxide and thus its participation in the global summit is very important. Also, being world’s two larger producers and consumers of energy, both nations have to play a key role in negotiating an agreement.

It is a fact that headway was made on climate change. The two leaders committed their countries, biggest emitters of the heat-trapping gases causing global warming to backing a detailed political agreement to be held at climate-change conference in Copenhagen. In their formula, rich countries would commit to reduction targets while developing ones would agree to meet softer goals that would be monitored. This is to be really appreciated.

The US and China pledged support for improvement of Indo-Pak ties on Tuesday even as President Barack Obama and his counterpart Hu Jintao vowed to strengthen cooperation on issues related to South Asia and other parts of the world, including combating terrorism, climate change and nuclear proliferation. Both nations appreciate the efforts by countries in the region for all initiatives in creating conducive atmosphere for peace, stability and development. Both sides complemented Pakistan and Afghanistan in the joint-statement after the meeting at the Ornate Great Hall of People at Beijing, for their efforts to combat terrorism so as to maintain stability and achieve sustainable economic stability.

It was quite strange that the Sino-U.S joint-statement included a novel resolution of the India’s bilateral relations with Pakistan, though it was between U.S and China! There is meaning and prudence when issues connected with terrorism or military sabotage happening in the region and threatening even nations around the world, serious human rights violations and atrocities against ethnic minorities being held in anywhere etc. which are to be condemned get a place in the joint- statement. On what propriety the reference to the CBMs between Indian and Pakistan appeared in the joint declarations mentioning that China has to play the role of a mediator, an obscurity looms around the corner! U.S is very much aware of the perennial security issue India is entangled into with Pakistan, the epic-centre of the terrorism in the world. No tactics of international politics and diplomacy can win the terrorists mushrooming out of Pakistan soil when the terror kingpins are privileged to get security cover and even honoured by the Political democracy which is under the mercy of joint consortiums of military and mafia.

Obama and Hu Jintao pledged support for the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is already slated his itinerary to Washington for meeting Osama within ten days, ie. on 24th of November,2009 , this mentioning in the joint statement of U.S and China is highly unwarranted. India’s has consistently extended hands of friendship to the neighbour Pakistan, but each time the response was not satisfactory as it is habituated to use ‘terror’ as a state policy. The Sino-U.S joint-statement should not signal Pakistan for insisting on a third party in the bilateral issues with India. India should caution all friendly nations including U.S and China not to drag the Indo-Pak issue into any other dialogues here afterwards and dismantle the on going Peace process and arrest of terrorism.

The only relief is that it is not for the first time that a U.S-China summit level joint statement mentioned on India! When there was a summit immediately after the Pokhran Test in 1998, the then U.S president Bill Clinton and the then Chinese President Jiang Zemin declared a statement wherein they quoted their commitment to help peacefully resolve “the difficult and long standing differences between India and Pakistan, including the pending issue of Kashmir”

As mentioned earlier, in this matter also after Obama left for U.S, the Chinese Spokesperson Qin Gang was down playing on the significance of Sino-U.S joint-statement commented that as long as it is good for stability of the region, China will support the relevant moves as India and Pakistan are important countries in the South Asia. He reiterated that China values its bilateral ties with both these countries.

It would have been laudable for Obama the Nobel Laureate, if he had prevailed on China to dismiss any high-handed adventures planned for, in it’s boarders with India!
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Note: Though the Article was ready prior to 24th November,2009 before the visit of Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh in U.S, the posting of the same is was delayed due to unforeseen reasons.